Back of a fag packet

There has been lots of (understandable) interest in a report which claims that there could be up to 4000 deaths a day which is what persuaded the PM to lock down the country and potentially destroy huge swathes of our economy. The highest total daily death tally has been 1222 which happened in the first wave so how on earth anyone thinks that we are going to get to 4000 deaths a day is beyond me. Well actually, despite repeated refusals to share the data behind this report there are rumours that the people behind the report used a 60 day cut off for Covid related deaths as opposed to the 28 day cut off currently in use. This is just insane. No one else on the planet uses this measure. So apparently, this is why we have locked down. Let me stress that at this stage this 60 day cut off is not confirmed but no doubt more news will emerge over the coming days.

This is a useful graph which hi-lights the various scenarios alongside current deaths and ONS data

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